by Dr Jeremy Ive and Pearson Stiller
The Korean Peninsula and the Ukrainian situation have been the centre of international attention, with ongoing tensions and conflicts posing significant challenges to regional and global peace. In these complex and sensitive contexts, the need for innovative and effective approaches to conflict resolution is more pressing than ever.
RPI is of the view that a Mutual Convergent Development (MCD) process offers a promising framework for achieving sustainable peace and cooperation in these challenging environments. By promoting economic interdependence, cross-border trade and investment, and collaborative development projects, MCD can foster a sense of shared interest and mutual benefit among stakeholders.
What is a Mutual Convergent Development strategy?
A Mutual Convergent Development Strategy provides one possible means to build trust. It also, we argue, will gain the interest and support of all parties in the current conflict in Ukraine with the support of the rest of the international community.
What exactly would economic convergent development look like? Convergent development does not mean total integration of the two economies, which in any event is not achievable. Convergent development is a process of bringing two countries or sectors together so that they have shared values, institutions, and policy goals, and move by agreement towards a shared future.
To achieve convergent development of the goals and priorities there needs to be a process of detailed discussions between key policymakers. Behind the policies often lie values that inform them. A major challenge to achieving joint goals and priorities will be to make those values explicit and to seek shared values to help in the process of defining what both countries are seeking to achieve in the future.
The aim is not a process of ad hoc compromises, but rather seeking a ‘third way’ which draws on aspects of history and contemporary religious beliefs to identify sources, themes, and values that can act as foundations for future policy. One possible basis for such a third way would be to establish as a core value that the quality of relationships between individuals, organizations, and nations is the heart of personal, family, and community well-being, and national identity. It is a precondition for the creation of economic growth or personal wealth, self-reliance, and national harmony.
There are three necessary foundations for building trust:
- Mutual knowledge
This depends on face-to-face meetings between individuals as well as between stakeholder groups, regular and multiple points of contact, and each side understands better the other’s background and motivations. More than any other element, mutual knowledge drives empathy, enriching mutual encounters and cementing experience into shared history. But it also implies an appropriate balance of privacy, transparency, and accountability, and underlies the quality and directness of information flows. In complex organisations, it is about the visibility of key data, the avoidance of groupthink, and recruiting and promoting people with the right skills.
- Mutual respect
This includes perceptions of fairness by both parties and participation in any decisions that affect both/all parties in the relationship. Respect for the way parties are acknowledged and represented strongly motivates participation. It permeates the just imposition of rules in the forms of thoroughness and impartiality. It implies a consideration of the young and those not yet born who will often bear the consequences of current decisions. Systemically, it holds within it the foundation of the rights and responsibilities of both individuals and organisations in networks.
- Values and goals alignment
This needs to apply not only at the national level concerning understanding of progress but also at the level of all the major sectors of public policy. Why is mutual convergent development so important as a potential route forward in Ukraine? To grasp this, it is necessary to understand three key building blocks that are required to develop long-term relationships of trust in any context. Values are implicit in all models of economic growth and welfare that underlie government decision-making, although they are not always obvious or explicit. In the immediate Ukrainian context, there are currently very different values between Ukraine and Russia, and this may become a barrier to bringing about mutually agreed economic and social convergence as will be discussed below.
Comparing MCD Applications in Korea and Ukraine
The application of MCD principles to the Korean Peninsula and the Ukrainian situation presents unique opportunities and challenges.
The Korean Peninsula
In the Korean Peninsula, the long-standing division between the North and South presents a complex political and security landscape. The possibility of peace on the Korean Peninsula remains elusive, as the two Koreas and their respective allies remain divided over the issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Despite these challenges, there are some signs of hope. The two Koreas have held several family reunions, and there have been discussions about resuming stalled inter-Korean economic projects. However, these steps have been overshadowed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations, which have raised tensions and made it difficult to make progress on other issues. While there have been periods of dialogue and engagement, these efforts have been consistently thwarted by North Korea’s refusal to fully denuclearize.
However, MCD can potentially contribute to reconciliation and reunification by facilitating economic cooperation and promoting inter-Korean trade and investment. In the case of the Korean Peninsula, the centerpiece of this approach would be a Korean Peninsula Agriculture Community founded on a bilateral trade agreement, the details of which we provide elsewhere, including in the book, No Other Way to Peace in Korea.
The Ukrainian situation
The Ukrainian situation, on the other hand, is characterized by ongoing military conflict and a fragile political situation. The possibility of peace in Ukraine is also uncertain, with no clear resolution in sight. Both sides have suffered heavy losses and are reluctant to make concessions. Despite the challenges, there are some signs that the two sides may be willing to engage in negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has said that he is open to discussing a ceasefire, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has made some positive statements about the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
It is unclear whether the current situation will lead to a breakthrough in the peace process. Some analysts believe that the war in Ukraine may provide an opportunity for the two Koreas to work together to resolve their conflict, while others fear that it could further exacerbate tensions and make it even more difficult to achieve peace.
MCD can play a role in promoting economic recovery and stability in Ukraine, while also fostering cross-border cooperation and dialogue between the parties involved.
The advantage of a new and distinctive underlying theme to public policy will be a more compelling driver of the cultural changes needed to achieve a process of economic and social convergent development, as well as greater consistency and predictability across all sectors of the economy and public life. Recognize and respecting the best aspects of the economic and social capital of each system to the advantage of a new and distinctive underlying theme to public policy will be a more compelling driver of the cultural changes needed to achieve a process of economic and social convergence, as well as greater consistency and predictability across all sectors of the economy and public life.
There would be several potential obstacles to the implementation of the MCD process envisaged. They would need to consider whether to ask the international community to come to a conference of potential donors and investors to be able to explain to them their long-term goals and purpose in undertaking the convergent development strategy and answer any concerns they may raise.
As for Korea, using the historic precedent of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), but here RPI proposes the creation of a Lower Dnieper/Dnipro Water, Energy, and Environment Community (which will be referred to as the Community ) as part of the future peace process between Russia and Ukraine. The Community could be a foundation from which to rebuild relations and trust between Russia and Ukraine and act as a base that will lead to expansion and growth into future collaboration.
Ukraine currently is heavily dependent on nuclear power for its energy needs, with 15 reactors generating about half of its power. The largest of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants is the Zaporizhzhia Plant, which is currently under Russian control and has taken damage during the ongoing fighting. Greater access to nuclear fuel could potentially reduce both Russian and Ukrainian reliance on coal-produced energy.
Water supply from the lower Dnieper/Dnipro, specifically from the Kakhovka Reservoir, and the North Crimean Canal has also been a contentious issue between Russia and Ukraine. Before the Russian annexation of the peninsula in 2014, 90% of Crimea’s freshwater needs came through the canal, The water from the Kakhovka Reservoir was a key element to life in the region, not only providing drinking water to much of the regions around the river, but also water for agriculture, and cooling water for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
The destruction of the dam in June 2023, and the resulting draining of the Kakhovka Reservoir has put the water supply to these regions and the Power Plant at very high risk. Irrigation canals and water supplies have already begun to dry up. The more contentious issue that will have to be addressed by the Community is the supply of water through the North Crimean Canal. The Kakhovka Dam will need to be rebuilt. This potentially could be undertaken as a joint venture between Russian and Ukrainian firms, as both have a vested interest in the operation of the Dam. It will be an important step towards building further and greater cooperation and trust.
Environmental considerations will also need to be included within the agreement. The Lower Dnieper/Dnipro is a unique and sensitive ecosystem and needs to be protected to ensure that the benefits of the Community are sustainable for both Russia and Ukraine. The ecosystem in areas such as the Kinburn Spit, at the mouth of the Dnieper/Dnipro has already been affected and damaged by the ongoing war. The environmental damage, as outlined above, has become disastrous with the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Environmental restoration and reconstruction will need to be a part of the Community.
The Lower Dnieper/Dnipro/Dniepr Community can be part of a wider process, eventually extending along the length of the river within a phased process of confidence building extending to a wider peace process.
It is clear thus that there is a place for mutual benefit for both Russia and Ukraine in the field of energy and environment, and the benefits are mutually reinforcing.
Conclusion
The Korea and the Ukraine situations are interlinked – the war in Ukraine is exacerbating and deepening the divisions in the Korean Peninsula. However, if the corner can be turned in Ukraine, it will be important to have an MCD process planned to roll out in that situation.
A breakthrough in Ukraine for peace will provide the possibilities and inspiration for an MCD process in the Korean Peninsula.