By Jeremy Ive and Pearson Stiller
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused untold human suffering and damage. An end to the conflict between those two countries, beyond the end to the death and suffering, would also see a significant peace dividend, not only for Russia and Ukraine, but for the wider international community. A possible key element to realising this peace dividend could be the Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro River which bisects the 1991 territory of Ukraine and crosses through Belarus.
It is proposed that, following an armistice, a focus for peaceful cooperation to create a broader, more sustainable framework for post-war reconstruction could be centred on cooperation on the Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro.
Issues concerning the Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro, from access to water to use of the River, and the rivers role in energy production will all need to be addressed for a sustainable peace and to minimise future friction, necessitating a framework for cooperation. This would include broader phases that we have outlined elsewhere for our roadmap for a Mutual Convergent Development (MCD) process to undergird a resolution of the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict (see “How to Build Long-term Peace between Russian and Ukraine” )
Phase 1: Laying the Foundations
- Ceasefire and Framework Agreement: A stable ceasefire and a commitment by all parties to the peaceful resolution of future disputes are essential prerequisites.
- Scientific Cooperation: Establishing a joint scientific committee made up of hydrologists, climatologists, and environmental scientists from Ukraine, Russia, and the international community, who’s role would be to conduct research, share data, and develop joint management plans based on the scientific method.
- Infrastructure Projects: Identify and prioritise infrastructure projects, like rebuilding the Kakhovka Dam, upgrade water treatment facilities, and constructing flood control measures, all while prioritising ecological considerations.
- Addressing Environmental Flaws: Learn from past mistakes and to avoid making them again. Infrastructure projects, such as rebuilding the Kakhovka Dam should prioritise ecological considerations, minimize impact on fish populations and their migration, local communities, and prioritise overall river health.
- Safety and Sustainability: Incorporate dam safety measure and sustainable energy production strategies to balance human needs with environmental protection.
Phase 2: Building Blocks for Economic Cooperation
- Joint Funding and Investment: An international funding mechanism could be established to support joint projects between Ukraine and Russia. Sources could include international development banks, member state contributions, and private sector investment.
- Dispute Resolution Mechanism: A clear process for resolving disagreements over water allocation, infrastructure development, or environmental concerns is crucial. Independent mediation, arbitration or a join scientific review panel appointed jointly by Russia and Ukraine could be established.
- Capacity Building: Training programs for water management professionals, the sharing of best practices, and technology transfer are all essential for long-term success.
Phase 3: Building Blocks for Social Cooperation and Cultural and Social Exchange
- River-Based Events: Organise cultural and social events along the Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro River, such as festivals, concerts, and sports competition to foster interaction, understanding, and cooperation between the two communities.
- Tourism Development: Promote tourism along the river, creating jobs, attracting visitors, and stimulating economies along both sides of the river.
- Youth Exchange Programs: Support youth exchange programs to encourage cross-cultural understanding and build relationships between young people from both regions focused on the river, not only for the present for to reinforce relations into the future.
Phase 4: Expanding the Scope of River-focused Cooperation within a Confederal Structure
- Upper Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro : Independent quality and quantity management needs to be established with international involvement for the entire Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro River basin with international funding and under scrutiny from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
- Cross-Border River Basins: Acknowledge the interconnectedness of river systems and consider the Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro’s role in the wider river and hydrological network in order to properly address wider challenges such as climate change.
- Care of Ecosystems: Integrate ecosystems into the reconstruction process, including, but not limited to, the restoration of wetlands, floodplains, and native vegetation in order to improve water quality, prevent flooding, and support biodiversity.
Phase 5: Belarus Drawn into a Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro Basin Commission (DBC)
- Founding Members: Ukraine, and Russia would initially be the founding members. Future membership would be opened up during Phase 5 to Belarus.
- Institutional Framework: A high-level international agreement would establish the DBC framework. This framework would outline the DBC’s goals, structure, and core principles, such as sustainability, transparency, and shared benefits. The DBC would require a governing body composed of representatives from each member state, water management experts, and environmental NGO’s. Sub-committees could focus on specific areas like water quality, dam management and ecological restoration.
- International Cooperation: This fosters cooperation and a “building back better” approach across borders.
- Drawing on International Expertise: Incorporating international expertise on the crucial issues for a truly global solution. Collaborative research and knowledge sharing can lead to more effective environmental management.
Long-Term Sustainability:
- Monitoring and Enforcement: A robust water quality monitoring program is needed to track pollution levels and ensure compliance with agreed-upon standards. Independent inspections and consequences for non-compliance will be necessary.
- Public Participation: Regular outreach programs and public consultations to create a regional and democratic governance model and to ensure transparency and build public support will be necessary.
- Adaptation and Evolution: Phased unfolding should be a dynamic process, adapting strategies based on new scientific understanding and evidence, changing climate patterns, and the evolving needs of the region.
Challenges and Considerations:
- Political Will: Maintaining political commitment from all member states will be essential for long-term success. This will need to be given a clear and binding institutional structure to ensure continued commitment and participation.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Addressing historic mistrust and current geopolitical tensions will require strong diplomacy, creating mutual understanding and relationships and focus on shared benefits
- Financial Sustainability: Securing long-term funding for joint operations and projects will be critical.
- Meeting Environmental Challenges: The best environmental practices will need to be utilised to address the many environmental challenges.
This Comprehensive Approach has the Potential To:
- Foster trust and cooperation between divided regions.
- Create a more resilient and sustainable water, energy, and ecological systems for the entire Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro
- Set a precedent for collaborative environmental management in a post-armistice scenario between Russia and Ukraine
By following a phased approach, establishing strong institutions, and fostering scientific cooperation, the Lower Dnieper/Dnipro Community, which would lead to the Dnieper/Dnipro/Dnepr/Dnyapro Commission has the potential to become a model for cross-border water resource management, prosperity, and environmental sustainability for the entire region, all while promoting long-term peace.
30 January 2025